Derek Johnson Muses

It is my daily goal to make everyone around me better people, thanks be to God.

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Giants vs. Patriots: Why is Nothing Coming to My Mind, Again? Come Back Sunday to Find Out

Four years ago, when the Giants upset the Packers and Farve on the road and made the Super Bowl, I was rather unimpressed with the subsequent Super Bowl match-up. The Patriots and Giants had played a great game in prime-time the last week of the regular season. The Patriots had won, proven they were worthy of 16-0 and one of the best teams of the last forty years, and the Giants proved they could hang with the Patriots. So the Super Bowl seemed flat, and even flatter in light of the potential Brady-Farve match-up.

So now we’re debating who has more to add to his legacy by the winning another Super Bowl, Tom Brady or Eli Manning, a debate people love to hear in light of the Occupy Movement. This game feels a lot like the Super Bowl  last year: a good game between two teams who did things the right way, and the team that was slightly better (Green Bay) won a close game in non-dramatic fashion. The only thing that could make this game at all interesting is the potential revenge factor and Bill Belichik running it up on the Giants, but he likely lacks the players do just that against this Giants team. Of course, the Giants did have some huge losses in the middle of the years, which no one remember now, so it could happen.

For this Super Bowl to be great, Brady and Eli will have to match each other throw for throw. The really great Super Bowls of my lifetime, Patriots-Panthers, Steelers-Cardinals, and the best of them all, Packers-Broncos, featured lead changes, long plays, and momentum swing like that of a pregnant woman. Of course, the Rams-Patriots Super Bowl was dramatic, but only because it featured the impossible feat a Patriots defense shutting down one of the league’s all time great offenses. If  these quarterbacks coming back time after time, it could be a great game. Neither time is good enough in their back seven to dominate the other team, although the Giants are able to compensate with their pass rush. The wildcard could be this: does Bill Belichik see his team as the true underdog, and if he does, would he then try a trick play? Remember, Belichik called a halfback pass in the Super Bowl against the Rams (Kevin Faulk never threw the ball on the play, though).

Personally, I am betting the Giants at +3, although I did this before I considered the Giants edge: Peter King said on ESPN Radio in the middle of the season that, if the Giants did not generate a pass rush, they were a vulnerable team. With the time to prepare, Belichik can come up with something to counter the Giants’ rush, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Patriots were able to jump out early on the Giants. But I don’t regret the bet; really, I feel this game is similar to the first LSU-Alabama game this year, and at -5, Alabama covering seemed like the least likely outcome. Same thing I feel with the Patriots at -3.

As far as the commercials, I don’t really get into Super Bowl ads, unless they are really good. My favorite year for commercials was 2005 (the one I remember was the Fed Ex one with a list of things you had to have in a Super Bowl ad, which included a dancing, talking bear and Burt Reynolds), and the worst year was 2006, when the second commercial was a hideous musical parody for Burger King that feature the ugliest streamers. The group of people I was with was playing video games when the second half started.

The undoubted highlight of my Super Bowl experience this weekend will be monitoring twitter chatter and reporting it back to you. I don’t know what format it will take, but expect me to have a post by halftime, and possibly one or in the middle of the game, depending on how able I am to get my thoughts together. Of course, I myself will be tweeting during the game too, so feel free to follow me there. I look forward to hearing you thoughts to, and recapping on Monday.

A note on the halftime show: when it was announced on halftime of Sunday night football that Madonna would be performing at halftime, I did a twitter search for her, and it turned out the majority of people did not care. Really, Madonna should thank Lady Gaga for getting her the gig.

Betting thoughts on North Carolina-Virginia Tech

Quick thoughts on North Carolina(+10 at last check)-Virginia Tech: I don’t have a strong pull on this game. The argument for Virginia Tech covering is that this a revenge game from the last time UNC came into Lane Stadium and upset the VATech two years ago. Virginia Tech should have high motivation, given that a win could clinch the a birth for them in the ACC Title Game with a loss by rival Virginia on Saturday. It is senior night and Virginia Tech relishes in playing in the spotlight.
But here’s why Virginia Tech won’t cover. Virginia Tech is 3-7 against the spread, one of those against an FCS team, one against Wake Forest after the Demon Deacon were coming off a huge win against Florida State, and another was in a pick’em game at Georgia Tech, with extra time to prepare, everyone either beats or covers against Georgia Tech. The four worst teams in the AQ conference at covering the spread are Virginia Tech, Penn State, Nebraska, and Texas A&M. A&M can never handle expectation, and the three other programs all have the same common denominator: influence from an older head coach who is run-oriented and doesn’t believe in running up the score in an age where everyone does. (Athletic director Tom Osborne in Nebraska’s case.) Virginia Tech is built around their running the ball, both with running back David Wilson and quarterback Logan Thomas (428 running plays compared to 275 pass plays). But Thomas leaves much to be desired as a passer, which why Virginia Tech doesn’t cover often.
So let’s look at North Carolina. Going into their game against North Carolina State, I thought that the Tar Heels were a good bet at -4. I went this way because UNC hadn’t been blown out in any of their games this year, except the Clemson game were two of their turnovers lead directly to points and North Carolina State had been blown out three times. The line had gone down, and I figured there was value on UNC. I was wrong, and NCSU won 13-0. Now, UNC has had time to prepare and should be motivated given that this is their first and only shot on the national stage this year (and they disappointed in their last opportunity on a national stage in last season’s opener against LSU in the Georgia Dome.) UNC isn’t a size mismatch against Virginia Tech, and still has the NFL bodies which Butch Davis recruited. UNC quarterback Bryn Renner grew up in a Hokie family, so he will be max motivated. It would seem to be a reasonable play to follow the trend and take a Virginia Tech opponent to cover.
But there are some reservations about North Carolina. First Interim Head Coach Everett Withers probably has no chance now to get the job on a permanent basis and with his team already achieving bowl eligibility, likely they won’t be giving maximum effort. Everyone know a new hand is coming in and they could be playing for themselves. Outside of Duke, UNC has been 5-8 in November the past four year and this years (the Davis years), possibly because because basketball is back and football again is taking a back seat. If UNC mails it in, it won’t matter how Virginia Tech plays.
The line opened around -13 but is now down to -10. While logic dictates that the Virginia Tech opponent would be an automatic play, I do think there are some concerns about UNC’s motivation. Personally, I would wait up until game time and see if the line dropped any further. If it ended up around 9 or 9.5, I would consider playing Virginia Tech, but I have no problem passing on it. There will be better games this weekend.

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